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Risk-based security assessment with big data driven probabilistic modeling for wet snow extreme events

In-depth security analyses of power systems (PS) require to consider the vulnerabilities to natural threats which may cause multiple, dependent contingencies. On the other hand, such events often lead to high impact on the system, so that decision-making aimed to enhance security may become difficult. By considering uncertainty of incumbent hazards and of system state and response, risk-based contingency analysis and contingency ranking can be performed. Such hazard and vulnerability analyses can benefit from the latest developments in big data applications. The paper presents the integration of accurate hazard forecasts -from advanced numerical weather prediction systems- with a risk-based security assessment tool as well as the results of its application on a real-world power system scenario subject to extreme wet snow events forecasted via ensemble models.

Author(s):

Emanuele Ciapessoni    
Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A.
Italy

Diego Cirio    
Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A.
Italy

Pietro Marcacci    
Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A.
Italy

Andrea Pitto    
Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A.
Italy

Marino Sforna    
TERNA S.p.A.
Italy

 

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