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An efficient method to take into account forecast uncertainties in large scale Probabilistic Power Flow

The simulation of uncertainties due to renewable and load forecasts is becoming more and more important in security assessment analyses performed on large scale AC networks. This paper presents an efficient method to take into account forecast uncertainties in probabilistic power flow (PPF) applications, based on the combination of PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and PEM (Point Estimate Method), in the context of operational planning studies applied to large scale AC grids. The benchmark against the conventional PEM method applied to very large power system models shows that the proposed method assures high speed up ratios, preserving a good accuracy of the marginal distributions of the outputs.

Author(s):

Emanuele Ciapessoni    
Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A.
Italy

Diego Cirio    
Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A.
Italy

Andrea Pitto    
Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A.
Italy

Stefano Massucco    
University of Genova
Italy

Federico Silvestro    
University of Genova
Italy

 

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